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"What can monetary policy do?"
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Since the start of the year, we have observed that market-based measures of inflation expectations have fallen. Nevertheless, the latest forecasts provided by the ECB last Thursday continue to point to a gradual rise in inflation over the coming years: 0. This brings me to my second point: how effective are our non-standard measures?
These measures include:. Turning now to the comprehensive package that has just been introduced, it sends out two clear messages:. We are firmly set on this objective, and have a broad range of instruments with which to achieve it. In addition to negative interest rates, which naturally have their limits, we are also acting both on bank lending — via credit easing with the new TLTRO — and on market financing - via the extended QE asset purchase programme — and are guaranteeing that we shall continue to do so for as long as necessary - via forward guidance.
It is to encourage banks to lend to corporations, SMEs and households alike; similarly, extending the asset purchase programme to corporate bonds will be of particular benefit to large French corporations.
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In other words, we are securing the provision of credit to businesses and households, and protecting it from tensions linked to market volatility. They have translated into a substantial easing in borrowing conditions for euro area companies. Since 7 June , the cost of borrowing for businesses has fallen by 80 basis points.
Jens Weidmann: From extraordinary to normal - reflections on the future monetary policy toolkit
Without non-standard measures, we estimate that we would have had to lower key rates by around basis points in June to achieve a similar effect on bank interest rates. This has also helped to stimulate lending to the real economy: in the euro area, outstanding loans to businesses have gone from a contraction of The impact is even more marked in France, where outstanding business lending grew by 4. Convergent estimates from the ECB and the Eurosystem indicate that, all other things being equal, the measures introduced since June should add 1 percentage point to inflation over the period , with a similar impact on growth.
In France, they helped to boost growth by 0. That said, we also need to keep a close eye out for any possible negative side-effects of our monetary policy, notably for financial stability. For the time being, 8 there are no signs of any bubbles forming in the main financing markets: on the whole, developments in the equity markets appear in line with corporate profit forecasts, while evolutions in bond yields also seem consistent with the outlook for inflation and growth. Nor are there any signs of excessive credit growth in the financial system.
Nevertheless, we remain vigilant over all aspects of the current macroeconomic and financial environment. We are ready, when needed, to take action with macroprudential measures, to prevent and mitigate any systemic risks that might arise. Monetary policy is thus doing a great deal to counter weak inflation and support economic activity — it is our duty and we will continue to do so with steadfast resolve: we are consistent in our objective, ready to act with the right instruments, and alert to any possible risks.
Other economic policies also have a role to play. Where there is sufficient margin to do so, fiscal policy must support demand — this is not currently the case in France, but it is in other countries in Europe. Moreover, structural reforms remain absolutely vital in France, to encourage creations of jobs and of businesses and thus bring the economy back to full potential.
At European level, we need to move finally towards a true 9 economic union, in addition to the monetary union embodied in the Eurosystem. Only by optimising the governance of the euro area can we optimise growth.
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